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Draft Preview: Breakouts  
 


In Fantasy sports, there is certain terminology used to denote different players. Studs and busts, sleepers and breakouts, injury-risks and high-risk, high-reward candidates are all terms most often associated with sports, and Fantasy sports specifically.

   

Then, of course, you also have the obscene phrases that pepper the Fantasy sports language, like closer by committee, torn ACL, Tommy John surgery, running back by committee and Mike Shanahan. The mere mention of any of those terms usually makes a Fantasy owner wince in pain.

But we're here to talk about the difference between breakout players and sleepers. A sleeper is a player who is expected to go from bad to good; a breakout player is a player expected to go from good to great.

While the sleeper list we provide you with won't necessarily be filled with players drafted in every league, the following breakout players will likely be considered mid-level players at your draft. They are expected to help your team somewhat, even if their breakout year hasn't arrived yet.

Every season, breakout players arrive in different forms. Some are players who have showed promise, coming off of solid years, finally expected to be healthy for good. Some have matured both physically and mentally, ready to step up to the challenge of becoming an excellent Fantasy player. And then there are others that have played well in the past, but the surrounding talent or situations have changed, setting them up for a stellar year.

Here's our list of the top breakout candidates for 2005:

The Rangers' Kevin Mench hit 26 homers in less than 450 at-bats last season. (Getty Images)  
The Rangers' Kevin Mench hit 26 homers in less than 450 at-bats last season. (Getty Images)  
Kevin Mench, OF, Texas: There are only a handful of batters who hit more home runs than Mench's 26 last season in fewer at-bats -- actually, it was more like a fingerful. Barry Bonds was the only player to out-hit Mench in fewer at-bats in 2004. Pretty good company. Injuries have hampered the aggressive swinger over the past couple seasons, but that shouldn't scare owners away from selecting him in the later rounds of mixed-league drafts. He just turned the magical Fantasy Baseball age of 27, and the Rangers lineup is one that should afford him plenty of RBI opportunities -- we're guessing more than 100 of them for 2005.

A.J. Pierzynski, C, Chicago White Sox: After averaging a .300 batting average in three seasons while starting for the Twins from 2001-03, Pierzynski was traded to the Giants last winter in a deal that brought the Twins Joe Nathan. After a season in the National League, playing in what had been considered one of the stronger pitching parks in the bigs, A.J. hit only .271 with the Giants, proving wrong prognosticators who believed his spray-hitting would improve his average in the Bay area. Now he returns to the AL Central Division, where he will bat seventh in a deep lineup that led the majors in homers last season. He knocked in a career-best 77 RBI in 2004, but Fantasy owners should expect him to increase that number by 10 with the White Sox while bringing his average back up to around the .300 level.

Brad Wilkerson, 1B/OF, Washington: The Expos had few bright spots in 2004, but one of them was the 32-homer season of one Mr. Wilkerson. That was a 50 percent increase on any other season. Since October, the Expos have moved to Washington, and the team has added sluggers Jose Guillen and Vinny Castilla to replace Tony Batista and Juan Rivera -- that's a decent trade no matter how you look at it. Wilkerson will receive a little better protection in the lineup as the team can finally move forward in the nation's capital. The former college pitcher will continue to improve on his strikeout-to-walk ratio in the batter's box and a .280-35-95 season is on the agenda. Sprinkle in a dozen steals, and you have a bona-fide breakout candidate.

Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets: His hamstring problems hamstrung his Fantasy value last year as many owners dealt with the disappointing season with a grimace. Most likely, he was purchased at a high price one year after setting the league on fire in his initial call-up in 2003. Granted, that season he battled ankle problems that ended his rookie year prematurely, and yes, he is still an injury risk, but he is definitely a risk worth taking. After what many will term an absolutely disastrous sophomore season for the 21-year-old, his Fantasy value will possibly be at its lowest for his entire career. Despite all the leg problems, he still turned in 19 steals in only 220 at-bats. Don't forget the kid has some pop, too -- he was the youngest player ever to hit homers from both sides of the plate two years ago. Imagine what he can do if he stays healthy for 450 at-bats with Carlos Beltran a couple spots behind him in the lineup. Sixty steals is reachable, 50 steals is reasonable, but 45 steals and 100 runs is probable.

Angel Berroa, SS, Kansas City: Migraine headaches killed the beginning of Berroa's sophomore season in Kansas City. He lost his job in the leadoff position, was dropped to ninth in the order, placed on the disabled list a couple times, sent down to the minors and replaced by Andres Blanco at shortstop. The 2003 AL rookie of the year lost almost 20 points on his batting average. He will be healthy for 2005, and he showed some signs of life at the end of last season. After hitting lower than .245 in three of the first five months of 2004, he wrapped up September with 34 hits in 106 at-bats (.321). Don't expect 20 homers from the free swinger, but 15 with 20 steals and a .290 average is pretty good. As a matter of fact, a 15-20 effort last year would have placed him in the shortstop ranks along with Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter as the only players eligible at the position to eclipse both of those marks.

David DeJesus, OF, Kansas City: Our second Royals youngster makes the list as DeJesus enters his sophomore season firmly entrenched as Kansas City's center fielder. Beltran's replacement is slowly improving his plate discipline, and manager Tony Pena has made it clear he is not afraid to give him the green light on the base paths. He has to increase his ability to hit left-handers though (.224 in 2004). The good news is he is a year wiser, with almost a full season under his belt. At 24, he enters spring with a starting job secured, and he can focus on adding power to his bio. The bad news is there is not much behind DeJesus in the batting order to knock him in, which could turn into good news since, once again, Pena will need him to move into scoring position on his own. Confused? Nah. DeJesus will make a fine late pick in mixed leagues when filling out your roster. Expect plenty of hitting streaks like the two 15-game streaks he pieced together last summer.

A.J. Burnett, SP, Florida By opening day 2005, Burnett, a 28-year-old right-hander, will be almost two years removed from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Yet he came back strong late last year and was able to show he still had the talent many projected him to have after his 204-inning, 12-win 2002 season. He suffered a setback late in 2005, but his winter has been uneventful, and he has an excellent chance of challenging ace Josh Beckett for the team lead in strikeouts. He couples a 95-mph fastball with one of the best curveballs in the NL. The Marlins offense is loaded and expected to provide tons of run support in a pitcher's park that will help Burnett keep putting up zeros on the scoreboard. Even after coming off his injury initially last year, he still led the Marlins starters by allowing opponents to hit only.231 against him. If he can stay healthy, 18 wins, 200 strikeouts, a sub-3.00 ERA and a 1.150 WHIP are attainable.

Rich Harden, SP, Oakland: The A's felt good enough about Harden's progress in the majors they traded two of the Big Three away in Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder this winter. And Barry Zito could be on his way out as well, clearing the way for the team's future ace. Harden doesn't have a great offense protecting him, but his bullpen, by season's end, could be one of the best in the AL. He performed well in his first full season in the majors, but he tired down the stretch. After a shaky April, Harden went 9-3 with 119 strikeouts, a 3.49 ERA and a 1.289 WHIP in 142 innings from May through August. But he ended the year 2-2, with a 5.52 ERA in five starts in September. Those final numbers could be just enough to drop him a little in the minds of your opponents. He has five quality pitches, but his fastball and slider are his bread and butter. Expect Harden, a 23-year-old right-hander, to stay strong later in the year and vie for 14-16 wins.

C.C. Sabathia, SP, Cleveland: One thing Sabathia hasn't showed over his first four seasons in the majors is consistency. He'll go through a nice stretch of quality starts, and then give up five, six or seven earned runs. Injuries also hampered the paunchy left-hander, but his start to last season should not be forgotten: He went 5-4 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.250 WHIP before the All-Star break. But the main number you should remember is 24. That's the age he will start the season at, despite the fact he has already pitched four seasons in the majors. His weight ranges from 275-290 pounds, but when the 6-foot-7 left-hander is on, he's tough to hit. Fifteen wins are within reach for Carsten Charles Sabathia.

Chad Cordero, RP, Washington: Last season, Cordero entered April as a sleeper candidate to close for the Expos only one year removed from being drafted in the first round of the 2003. Once he took over as the team's closer in June of 2004, he pitched well, earning 14 saves in 18 opportunities. He ended up pitching better as a closer than he did as a setup man, and now he enters the year as the stopper on a team with an improved offense in a new city. The extra hype could make this team fun to watch while his slider and fastball make him tough to hit. Danys Baez, Danny Graves, Shawn Chacon and Jose Mesa proved last season that even mediocre closers on bad teams can prove to be worth owning, consider what a player of Cordero's ability can do in a full season entrenched as the closer. He allowed only one earned run in his final 16 2/3 innings (0.54 ERA) of 2004. Thirty-plus saves and a sub-3.00 ERA are in the bank for 2005.

Guillermo Mota, RP, Florida: Armando Benitez saved 47 games for the Marlins in 2004, and they let him walk to San Francisco. In an offseason in which the team signed Carlos Delgado and re-signed Mike Lowell, management is expecting a run at another championship as they try to build momentum for their new stadium. Their faith in Mota, 31, is obvious as they hand him the keys to the final innings of games started by a superb starting staff consisting of Beckett, Burnett, Al Leiter and Dontrelle Willis. The pitcher's park at Dolphins Stadium will continue to help him, much like Dodger Stadium did in Los Angeles over the past three seasons. While his numbers weren't stellar in the 26 games he pitched after coming over in the Brad Penny trade, Mota has long been considered an excellent closer-in-the-making. He finally gets his chance and Fantasy owners can expect great saves numbers to go with a sub-1.100 WHIP.



  
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